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INFLATION AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
Abstract
The paper investigated the effect of inflation on stock market returns on the Nigerian stock exchange market, employing a volatility modeling approach. Using monthly data on stock market returns and consumer price index inflation rate, the paper employed GARCH and E-GARCH volatility modeling techniques for analysis. The study found that CPI inflation is not an important variable in explaining stock market return volatility in Nigeria. The E-GARCH model did not find existence of asymmetry in the stock return series; that is good news and bad news have identical impact on stock returns in Nigeria. The GARCH model show high persistence in the stock returns series, though a shock to stock returns has only a temporary impact.
Keywords: inflation, stock market returns, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity